Reading the ledger…
Reading the ledger…
Public record
Every call settles automatically against the live price feed and is hash-sealed in a public SHA-256 chain before the move happens. Misses are counted as loudly as hits — nothing here is curated, and you can recompute all of it yourself.
Bar height = calls settled that day · white ≥ 50% hit rate · grey below
Top bar (white) = confidence the network stated on average · bottom bar = what actually happened. Green within 5 points of the claim, red when the network is overconfident.
| Strategy | Calls | Hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| momentum | 824 | 46.6% | 0.2803 |
| meanrev | 520 | 54.0% | 0.2650 |
| breakout | 499 | 46.5% | 0.2950 |
| Symbol | Calls | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| ETH | 332 | 44.3% |
| BTC | 317 | 53.9% |
| SOL | 315 | 49.5% |
| DOGE | 298 | 47.3% |
| LINK | 294 |
Brier = mean squared error between stated confidence and outcome; lower is better, ~0.24 is what a constant 51% guess scores. Settlement uses the first recorded price at or after the deadline, so a delayed feed cannot rewrite a past result — the call was sealed before the move.
| 51.7% |
| AAPL | 103 | 46.6% |
| TSLA | 93 | 41.9% |
| NVDA | 91 | 47.3% |